The ongoing conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices sharply upward. Both Brent crude and WTI have surged from roughly $70 per barrel to approximately $100 in just a matter of days, approaching levels last seen when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This has generated considerable uncertainty across global financial markets, with discussions around a "global economic downturn" and "stagflation" becoming more prominent.
February served as a reminder to investors that market progress is rarely linear. After a strong start to the year that carried major indices to record highs, sentiment shifted as a landmark Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, concerns about artificial intelligence, softer labor market data, and significant escalations in the Middle East weighed on U.S. equities. At the same time, international stocks and small caps continued to post strong gains, and bonds advanced further, underscoring the value of maintaining a well-balanced portfolio.
As widely reported in the news, the U.S. and Israel have conducted military strikes against Iran, targeting its leadership, military infrastructure, and nuclear facilities. Iran's Supreme Leader has been confirmed killed, and Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks throughout the Middle East. President Trump has indicated that the objective of the operation, known as "Operation Epic Fury," is regime change in Tehran, with strikes anticipated to continue for several weeks and a number of U.S. troop casualties already reported.
November brought a wave of volatility across multiple asset classes, driven by concerns about artificial intelligence investments and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy decisions. Although major indices have posted impressive year-to-date gains across equities, fixed income, and international markets, the government shutdown complicated matters by delaying critical economic data releases.
Ensuring adequate savings for a lengthy retirement remains the paramount concern for retirees and those nearing retirement. Inflation over recent years has significantly diminished the buying power of cash reserves, making this challenge even more acute. Essential expenses for retirees—including healthcare, housing, and daily necessities—continue to reflect elevated price levels.
October saw equity markets maintain their robust momentum despite uncertainties surrounding the government shutdown and fresh trade disputes with China at the month's outset. Several key benchmarks achieved record highs following a short-lived bout of volatility. Fixed income investments also delivered positive returns as yields fell, supported in part by the Federal Reserve's consecutive interest rate reduction.
